1521 Custer Rd

Junction City, KS 66441

$49,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Pending · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,141/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $473/mo
• Annual: $5,680/yr
• Cap rate: 17.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.98%
• DSCR: 2.82
• 1% rule: 2.30%
• Cash to close: $13,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#266 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Geary County Schools (town): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #60 of 169 in KS (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westwood Elem (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #388 of 684 statewide, top 61%, 258 students, 75% FRL); Junction City Middle School (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #146 of 219 statewide, top 67%, 938 students, 61% FRL); Junction City Sr High (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #161 of 327 statewide, top 50%, 1,657 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 40% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 93 units permitted in Geary County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Geary County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (57%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $50k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.