77 Lakewood Village Dr

Medina, NY 14103

$69,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $299/mo
• Annual: $3,586/yr
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.32%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $298 of equity ($483 loan paydown + $-185 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#344 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Central School District (town): math 37% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #548 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $70k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.8% in Medina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.