3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,664 sqft ·
Built 1957
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 32 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,106/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$177
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$442
Net cashflow
$779/mo
Annual
$9,349/yr
Cap rate
13.22%
Cash-on-cash
24.73%
DSCR
2.10
1% rule
1.56%
Cash to close
$37,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Gonzales El (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 497 students, 75% FRL); Bonham Middle (math 9% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 867 students, 65% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DAHHXBFS3982EJ
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29