16 Marlene Dr

Norwich, CT 06339

$169,900B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 1965 · Manufactured · Active · 248 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,728/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $1,035/mo
• Annual: $12,417/yr
• Cap rate: 13.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.10%
• DSCR: 2.16
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#18 in CT, #1,391 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: schools D+.
• Ledyard School District (rural): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #92 of 153 in CT (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $170k implies a 580% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 4.0% in Norwich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.