1249 Sargeant St

Baltimore, MD 21223

$165,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1898 · Townhouse · Active · 284 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $196/mo
• Annual: $2,357/yr
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.10%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmer A. Henderson: A Johns Hopkins Partnership (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 80% FRL); Vanguard Collegiate Middle (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 84% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 425 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $165k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.