809 Harvill St

Freer, TX 78357

$95,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,070 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 124 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,346/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$259
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $306/mo
• Annual: $3,673/yr
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.81%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $651 of equity ($657 loan paydown + $-6 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#643 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Freer ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP.
• Duval County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.