5600 SE 39th St

Newberry, FL 32693

$270,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,792/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$313
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-313/mo
• Annual: $-3,757/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (33.6% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilchrist (rural): math 66% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #9 of 73 in FL (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Trenton Elementary School (math 71% / reading 59%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 809 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Gilchrist County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gilchrist County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $228k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.