Hibiscus Plan

Houston, TX 77051

$304,990D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,483 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,128/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$508
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-427/mo
• Annual: $-5,118/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $85,397

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-427 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (30.2% below list).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,128/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.