4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,282 sqft ·
Built 1988
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 349 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,200/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,045
Tax + insurance
−$1,061
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$462
Net cashflow
$-1,367/mo
Annual
$-16,407/yr
Cap rate
2.08%
Cash-on-cash
-15.03%
DSCR
0.33
1% rule
0.56%
Cash to close
$109,172
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (44.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (43.6% below list).
It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $216k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
Beaumont ISD (urban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #789 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 5.3% in Beaumont — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29