43-45 Becker Ter

Newark, NJ 07111

$799,000F

12 bd · 9.0 ba · 3,329 sqft · Built 1917 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,785/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$1,346
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-3,336/mo
• Annual: $-40,030/yr
• Cap rate: 1.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.89%
• DSCR: 0.20
• 1% rule: 0.35%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 12-bed/9.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (69.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (65.1% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $243k (69.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#343 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, housing D+, crime F.
• Irvington Public School District (suburban): math 4% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #465 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $799k implies a 451% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 3.0% in Newark — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,785/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 4252% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.