2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
975 sqft ·
Built 1950
· Condo
· Active
· 447 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,194/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$292
HOA
−$1,677
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$881
Net cashflow
$427/mo
Annual
$5,120/yr
Cap rate
9.22%
Cash-on-cash
10.45%
DSCR
1.46
1% rule
2.40%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $175k).
It's been on market 447 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 62 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,194/mo this rent would consume 123% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 10274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 447 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-DC9GH9CH441RB4
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29