209 N Gordon Dr

Crockett, TX 75835

$115,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,852 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,447/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$376
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $165/mo
• Annual: $1,977/yr
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.14%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,005 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crockett ISD (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #736 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crockett H S (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 361 students, 85% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 25% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Crockett ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.3% in Crockett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.