3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,830 sqft ·
Built 1978
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 52 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,537/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$390
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$323
Net cashflow
$-172/mo
Annual
$-2,065/yr
Cap rate
5.21%
Cash-on-cash
-3.88%
DSCR
0.83
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$53,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (16.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (19.1% below list).
It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $154k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
San Angelo ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #627 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Goliad El (math 27% / reading 24%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 412 students, 81% FRL); Lincoln Middle (math 19% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 844 students, 78% FRL); Lake View H S (math 6% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,527 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,085 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Angelo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DE84FEF0160FN0
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29