1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
434 sqft ·
Built 1963
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 59 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,076/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$312
Tax + insurance
−$180
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$226
Net cashflow
$357/mo
Annual
$4,290/yr
Cap rate
14.84%
Cash-on-cash
30.53%
DSCR
2.36
1% rule
1.81%
Cash to close
$16,660
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $411 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Garden City Elementary School (math 62% / reading 37%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 377 students, 68% FRL); Highlands Middle School (math 31% / reading 21%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 697 students, 73% FRL); Jean Ribault High School (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,385 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 49% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $9k; list at $60k implies a 561% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DEH6DT7MKAE3KN
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29