3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,408 sqft ·
Built 1914
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,916/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,232
Tax + insurance
−$298
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$402
Net cashflow
$-17/mo
Annual
$-202/yr
Cap rate
6.21%
Cash-on-cash
-0.31%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$65,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-202/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (1.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (18.5% below list).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $192k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Myers-Wilkins Elementary (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #703 of 857 statewide, top 84%, 341 students, 88% FRL); Ordean East Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #53 of 258 statewide, top 22%, 989 students, 26% FRL); East High School (math 42% / reading 73%, grade C, #59 of 471 statewide, top 13%, 1,494 students, 23% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 41 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
At $1,916/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 927% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DFFKY55HQ2N89M
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29