2289 Zion Rd

Gretna, VA 24557

$99,000C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,020 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,049/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $145/mo
• Annual: $1,735/yr
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.26%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#157 in VA, #4,927 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pittsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #22 of 131 in VA (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Pittsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pittsylvania County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $99k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.5% in Gretna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.