29311 Hidden River Dr

Gibraltar, MI 48173

$85,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,795/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $831/mo
• Annual: $9,968/yr
• Cap rate: 18.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.88%
• DSCR: 2.86
• 1% rule: 2.11%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $831 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#133 in MI, #3,254 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gibraltar School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #219 of 540 in MI (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hunter Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #814 of 1,397 statewide, top 61%, 393 students, 43% FRL); Shumate Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #215 of 493 statewide, top 45%, 795 students, 34% FRL); Oscar A Carlson High School (math 23% / reading 50%, grade F, #364 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 1,165 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 3.7% in Gibraltar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.