3 bd · 3.5 ba ·
1,778 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,400/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,772
Tax + insurance
−$563
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$504
Net cashflow
$-439/mo
Annual
$-5,267/yr
Cap rate
4.73%
Cash-on-cash
-5.57%
DSCR
0.75
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$94,590
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (27.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (36.8% below list).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $240k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Henderson N El (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 227 students, 100% FRL); Mcreynolds Middle (math 10% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 398 students, 98% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,400/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DG9FAE1J5RM56H
· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29