2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,000 sqft ·
Built 1979
· Manufactured
· Under Contract
· 111 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,650/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$131
Tax + insurance
−$42
HOA
−$950
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$346
Net cashflow
$181/mo
Annual
$2,168/yr
Cap rate
14.97%
Cash-on-cash
30.98%
DSCR
2.38
1% rule
6.60%
Cash to close
$7,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $23k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#19 in UT, #810 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Ogden City District (urban): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #72 of 80 in UT (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Lincoln School (math 18% / reading 19%, grade F, #535 of 585 statewide, top 92%, 461 students, 99% FRL); Highland Junior High (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #135 of 138 statewide, top 98%, 715 students, 0% FRL); Ben Lomond High (math 11% / reading 28%, grade F, #158 of 171 statewide, top 94%, 1,169 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 75% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 58% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 611 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,630 units permitted in Weber County in 2024 (521 in 5+ unit buildings).
Weber County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (48%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DGHDCR8FMRXMS1
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29