226 Avalon St

Brookhaven, MS 39601

$66,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 942 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,184/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $480/mo
• Annual: $5,755/yr
• Cap rate: 15.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.14%
• DSCR: 2.39
• 1% rule: 1.79%
• Cash to close: $18,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $66k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#96 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brookhaven School District (town): math 29% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #73 of 130 in MS (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Martin Elementary School (688 students, 100% FRL); Alexander Junior High School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #85 of 179 statewide, top 48%, 405 students, 99% FRL); Brookhaven High School (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #117 of 197 statewide, top 59%, 769 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 66% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 4.9% in Brookhaven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.