3958 Mediterranea Cir #411

South Gate Ridge, FL 34233

$210,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,437/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$594
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-939/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.60%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-939/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (6.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#394 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Gate Elementary School (math 60% / reading 65%, grade B, #601 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 655 students, 54% FRL); Sarasota Middle School (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A+, #21 of 571 statewide, top 4%, 1,278 students, 26% FRL); Riverview High School (math 61% / reading 65%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,597 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $210k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?