3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,535 sqft ·
Built 1987
· Condo
· Active
· 36 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,996/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$283
HOA
−$680
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$629
Net cashflow
$93/mo
Annual
$1,113/yr
Cap rate
6.74%
Cash-on-cash
1.59%
DSCR
1.07
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$69,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#465 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Gocio Elementary School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 644 students, 86% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 42% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 63% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sarasota average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,996/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 512% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DJD2PXCY7FRR7E
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29