4 bd · 3.5 ba ·
2,268 sqft ·
Built 2004
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 188 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$13,092/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$7,866
Tax + insurance
−$2,927
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,749
Net cashflow
$-450/mo
Annual
$-5,401/yr
Cap rate
6.27%
Cash-on-cash
-0.07%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$420,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.50M. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.43M (4.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.31M (12.7% below list).
It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.32M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.31M (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#149 in NJ, #3,893 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Margate City School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #113 of 472 in NJ (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: William H. Ross Iii School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #256 of 1,303 statewide, top 22%, 184 students, 4% FRL); Eugene A. Tighe Middle School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade B, #51 of 431 statewide, top 12%, 152 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $315k; list at $1.50M implies a 376% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $13,092/mo this rent would consume 129% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DJDW0A43HA6X57
· Data 2 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29