3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,140 sqft ·
Built 1998
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 211 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,262/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,494
Tax + insurance
−$300
HOA
−$176
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$475
Net cashflow
$-183/mo
Annual
$-2,199/yr
Cap rate
5.52%
Cash-on-cash
-2.76%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$79,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (11.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (20.6% below list).
It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $226k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Marion Oaks Elementary School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 939 students, 65% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #360 of 571 statewide, top 64%, 1,365 students, 54% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 858 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
7 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $170k; list at $285k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Liberty Triangle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DJR74T5RBRMCHS
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29