22383 Thousand Pines Ln

Parkland, FL 33428

$459,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · Built 1987 · Townhouse · Pending · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,992/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax + insurance: −$594
• HOA: −$254
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$838
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,221/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $128,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $459k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $441k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $399k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $399k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#551 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waters Edge Elementary School (math 89% / reading 86%, grade A+, #22 of 2,144 statewide, top 1%, 700 students, 20% FRL); Loggers' Run Community Middle School (math 65% / reading 66%, grade A-, #95 of 571 statewide, top 17%, 1,110 students, 30% FRL); West Boca Raton High School (math 55% / reading 70%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,271 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.5% in Parkland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,992/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 1990% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.