39 Smart Rd

Belfast, ME 04915

$210,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 853 sqft · Built 2024 · Other · Active Under Contract · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,655/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $783/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.33%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($783/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#14 in ME, #1,247 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, amenities F.
• RSU 71 (town): math 79% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #85 of 112 in ME (top 76%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Troy A Howard Middle School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #53 of 85 statewide, top 64%, 340 students, 45% FRL); Belfast Area High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #66 of 108 statewide, top 68%, 496 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 143 units permitted in Waldo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Waldo County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $210k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.4% in Belfast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.