115 Oak Wood Ln Ln

Gillis, LA 70657

$148,800D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,079/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$780
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-79/mo
• Annual: $-954/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $41,664

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-954/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $582 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#468 in LA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Allen Parish (rural): math 26% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #36 of 98 in LA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Allen Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allen County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $149k implies a 1388% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Gillis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.