16205 Farmer

Lytle, TX 78052

$232,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 999 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,751/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,221
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-117/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $65,212

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $233k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-117/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lytle El (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 541 students, 73% FRL); Lytle J H (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 398 students, 73% FRL); Lytle H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 487 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $65k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.