5847 F Rd

Escanaba, MI 49807

$209,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,009 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,498/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $716/mo
• Annual: $8,587/yr
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.61%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $716 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#161 in MI, #4,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, commute F, employment F.
• Bark River-Harris School District (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #129 of 540 in MI (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Delta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delta County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.9% in Escanaba — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.