4845 Front St

Shasta Lake, CA 96019

$375,000D+

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Built 1978 · MultiFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,854/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $453/mo
• Annual: $5,437/yr
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $375k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $151/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $375k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $364k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#399 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Lake (math 27% / reading 36%, grade F, #816 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 616 students, 74% FRL); Central Valley High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gateway Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.7% in Shasta Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,854/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 260% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — Rusty metal roof
• Minor: driveway — Dirt and debris