512-514 Chicago Ave

Savanna, IL 61074

$104,000C+

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,870 sqft · Built 1878 · Other · Pending · 443 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $322/mo
• Annual: $3,863/yr
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.27%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $29,120

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $104k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#684 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• West Carroll CUSD 314 (rural): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #498 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 6.4% in Savanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.