1661 Virginia St

Wrightwood, CA 92397

$449,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,612/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$759
• Net cashflow: $-121/mo
• Annual: $-1,449/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $429k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (19.7% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $361k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,155 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $222k; list at $450k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Wrightwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.