3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,592 sqft ·
Built 2018
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,294/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,678
Tax + insurance
−$498
HOA
−$31
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$482
Net cashflow
$-396/mo
Annual
$-4,747/yr
Cap rate
4.81%
Cash-on-cash
-5.30%
DSCR
0.76
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$89,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-396 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (21.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (28.3% below list).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $229k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 22% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: kitchen cabinets
— slight wear
Minor: bathroom cabinets
— slight wear
CashFlowRE · CFR-DPH90W4H1EHMWB
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29