245 Lawson St

Hempstead, NY 11550

$579,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,090 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,867/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax + insurance: −$753
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$812
• Net cashflow: $-740/mo
• Annual: $-8,882/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $162,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $580k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-740 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $449k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $387k (33.3% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $387k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#123 in NY, #2,002 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
• Uniondale Union Free School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #164 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Street Elementary School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,945 of 2,108 statewide, top 94%, 452 students, 69% FRL); Lawrence Road Middle School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 682 students, 65% FRL); Uniondale High School (math 83% / reading 90%, grade A, #336 of 1,100 statewide, top 31%, 2,080 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Uniondale Union Free School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $580k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,867/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 2535% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.