506 2nd

Cotulla, TX 78014

$120,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Pending · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $72/mo
• Annual: $869/yr
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.59%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($869/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (8.5% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $258 of equity ($830 loan paydown + $-572 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#422 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Cotulla ISD (town): math 29% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #625 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cotulla H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 345 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in La Salle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• La Salle County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.