13905 Trinity Mountain Rd Unit 10

French Gulch, CA 96033

$70,000A-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,788/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $998/mo
• Annual: $11,978/yr
• Cap rate: 23.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.11%
• DSCR: 3.72
• 1% rule: 2.55%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $998 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#834 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: French Gulch-Whiskeytown Elementary (math 70% / reading 70%, 18 students, 72% FRL); Shasta High (math 53% / reading 76%, grade B-, #165 of 1,170 statewide, top 15%, 1,333 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 16% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Shasta Union High average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.