172 Jane Ln

Bristol, VA 24201

$175,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,209/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-132/mo
• Annual: $-1,582/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (30.9% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $121k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#140 in VA, #4,544 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bristol City Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #53 of 131 in VA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland View Elementary (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 175 students, 98% FRL); Virginia Middle (math 56% / reading 71%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 487 students, 101% FRL); Virginia High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 637 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15 units permitted in Bristol city in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bristol County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $175k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.