813 W 12th St

Cameron, TX 76520

$169,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,368 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,617/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $256/mo
• Annual: $3,075/yr
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.50%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (4.3% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#812 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Cameron ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #312 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cameron El (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 303 students, 76% FRL); Cameron Middle (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 356 students, 73% FRL); Cameron Yoe H S (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 474 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Milam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Milam County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.9% in Cameron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.