13988 Lake Point Dr

Feather Sound, FL 33762

$486,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,030 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,202/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,549
• Tax + insurance: −$1,257
• HOA: −$325
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$882
• Net cashflow: $-811/mo
• Annual: $-9,728/yr
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.39%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $136,080

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $486k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-811 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (13.5% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $343k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#259 in FL, #4,144 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: High Point Elementary School (math 54% / reading 48%, grade C-, #1,043 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 609 students, 80% FRL); Fitzgerald Middle School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,033 students, 62% FRL); Pinellas Park High School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,919 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.8% in Feather Sound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,202/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 105% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?