2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,430 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 24 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,570/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$83
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$330
Net cashflow
$895/mo
Annual
$10,738/yr
Cap rate
27.77%
Cash-on-cash
76.70%
DSCR
4.41
1% rule
3.14%
Cash to close
$14,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $895 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#52 in MD, #1,963 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, commute F.
Frederick County Public Schools (other): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #4 of 24 in MD (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,562 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (374 in 5+ unit buildings).
Frederick County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $139k (74%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 27.8% vs local median 3.4% in Brunswick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DR1DXE84YH338G
· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29