5203 Main St #160

Lexington, MI 48450

$47,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1968 · Other · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $804/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$251
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$322
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-215/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.60%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.68%
• Cash to close: $13,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-215/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $45k (5.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($804 rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $45k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $331 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#494 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Croswell-Lexington Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #239 of 540 in MI (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meyer Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #200 of 1,397 statewide, top 16%, 322 students, 50% FRL); Croswelllexington Middle School (math 21% / reading 45%, grade F, #306 of 493 statewide, top 63%, 553 students, 56% FRL); Croswelllexington High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 579 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Sanilac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sanilac County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.