16 West Cyn

Wanakah, NY 14075

$49,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Pending · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,612/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $911/mo
• Annual: $10,932/yr
• Cap rate: 28.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.24%
• DSCR: 4.48
• 1% rule: 3.23%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $911 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#508 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 28.2% vs local median 3.1% in Wanakah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.