2604 Sunset Bay Ln

Wylie, TX 75173

$539,000D-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,044 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 231 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax + insurance: −$809
• HOA: −$64
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $-1,211/mo
• Annual: $-14,533/yr
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.63%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $150,920

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $539k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (39.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (41.6% below list).
• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $315k (41.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$93k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.