617 Heath Ct

Lambertville, NJ 08530

$875,000B

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,532 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 203 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $21,373/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax + insurance: −$1,625
• HOA: −$360
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,488
• Net cashflow: $10,311/mo
• Annual: $123,731/yr
• Cap rate: 20.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.50%
• DSCR: 3.25
• 1% rule: 2.44%
• Cash to close: $245,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $875k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($124k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $875k).
• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($770k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $770k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#168 in NJ, #4,460 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• South Hunterdon Regional School District (rural): math 13% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #335 of 472 in NJ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $245k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 4.7% in Lambertville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.