4 E Mill Rd

Northfield, NJ 08225

$449,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,795/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$738
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$797
• Net cashflow: $-95/mo
• Annual: $-1,139/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $432k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $379k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in NJ, #3,997 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Northfield City School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #196 of 472 in NJ (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 14867% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $449k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.