19 Dolphin Ct #19

Half Moon Bay, CA 94019

$346,500C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,065 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,845/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,817
• Tax + insurance: −$578
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$807
• Net cashflow: $643/mo
• Annual: $7,713/yr
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.95%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $97,020

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $346k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $346k).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $305k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#78 in CA, #2,976 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Cabrillo Unified (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #498 of 1,400 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,019 units permitted in San Mateo County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Mateo County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $346k implies a 478% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.3% in Half Moon Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($154k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.