4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,688 sqft ·
Built 1924
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,117/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,023
Tax + insurance
−$139
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$445
Net cashflow
$511/mo
Annual
$6,134/yr
Cap rate
9.44%
Cash-on-cash
11.23%
DSCR
1.50
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$54,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Rowell Elementary (594 students, 98% FRL); Yosemite Middle (674 students, 98% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 14% / reading 41%, grade F, #780 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 2,228 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 77% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,117/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 2958% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DSH4X80HN8GFJV
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29