1340 Mt Pisgah Rd

Walnut Creek, CA 94596

$4,200,000F

168 bd · None ba · 4,284 sqft · Built 1966 · MultiFamily · Pending · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,636/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$22,025
• Tax + insurance: −$5,283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,754
• Net cashflow: $-9,425/mo
• Annual: $-113,105/yr
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.62%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $1,176,000

Investor read

• This is a 10×1bd/1.25ba + 2×2bd/1.5ba units multifamily listed at $4.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9k ($-113k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-785/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.53M (39.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.26M (46.1% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($3.82M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.26M (46.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $29k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $126k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#113 in CA, #4,005 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Acalanes Union High (suburban): math 73% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #21 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Tice Creek (424 students, 4% FRL); Walnut Creek Intermediate (985 students, 13% FRL); Las Lomas High (math 66% / reading 83%, grade B+, #78 of 1,170 statewide, top 7%, 1,571 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.48M; list at $4.20M implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.1% in Walnut Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $22,636/mo this rent would consume 200% of the median local household income ($136k/yr) (locally 1371% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?