3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,625 sqft ·
Built 1978
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,768/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,967
Tax + insurance
−$267
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$581
Net cashflow
$-47/mo
Annual
$-569/yr
Cap rate
6.14%
Cash-on-cash
-0.54%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.74%
Cash to close
$105,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-569/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (2.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (26.2% below list).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $277k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#55 in FL, #965 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $99k; list at $375k implies a 279% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Ormond Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,768/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1158% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DV28G1997C226X
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29