7141 Road 406

Kiln, MS 39556

$189,000F

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Active · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,085/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-295/mo
• Annual: $-3,534/yr
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.68%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (42.6% below list).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#69 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hancock County School District (rural): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #23 of 130 in MS (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in Kiln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.